Do mutual fund flows affect the French corporate bond market?

We study whether investors’ withdrawals from mutual funds affect corporate bond prices. As mutual funds have become major players in the financial markets, they are likely to exert downward pressures on asset prices when facing investors’ redemptions, particularly in the less liquid markets such as corporate bonds. We use a novel dataset on the French bond funds and show that both flows in and out of mutual funds lead to a significant effect on the corporate bond yields. This effect is asymmetric as redemptions provoke a change in yields of greater magnitude than inflows. Moreover, all corporate bonds are not equally affected by investors’ withdrawals from funds: The more a bond is detained by funds, the higher the impact of redemptions on its yield. These three results are robust to various changes in econometric specifications.     

The effect of observables,functional specifications,model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models

The decisions a researcher makes at the model building stage are crucial for parameter identification. This paper contains a number of applied tips for solving identifiability problems and improving the strength of DSGE model parameter identification by fine-tuning the (1) choice of observables, (2) functional specifications, (3) model features and (4) choice of structural shocks. We offer a formal approach based on well-established diagnostics and indicators to uncover and address both theoretical (yes/no) identifiability issues and weak identification from a Bayesian perspective. The concepts are illustrated by two exemplary models that demonstrate the identification properties of different investment adjustment cost specifications and output-gap definitions. Our results provide theoretical support for the use of growth adjustment costs, investment-specific technology, and partial inflation indexation.     

International Real Estate Investment and Urban Development: An Analysis of Korean Activities in Hanoi,Vietnam

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been recognised as a major influence upon urban development within emerging economies. As the focus of production shifted toward higher skills and advanced technologies, expatriate high-skilled employees of the Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) began to play a significant role in FDI projects and recipient cities begin to experience urban development associated with residential development and community services for the settlement of these expatriate staff. This research reports on the experience of Korean investment in real estate following earlier projects in manufacturing activity in the Hanoi Capital Region. Korean investors are currently the largest FDI source in Vietnam and Hanoi has been favoured by them. The purpose of this research is to examine that the urban impact of manufacturing FDI on a recipient city is magnified by its connections with Real estate FDI (RFDI) in a way that it spurs (1) intensified real estate development, (2) the creation of new urban cores, and (3) new commuting patterns. The clustering of Korea-specific residential development and service functions is a contribution to change in Hanoi. The Korean-built housing complexes have transplanted Korean-style housing design into gated communities and the residents continue their Korean life-styles with easy access to language-specific community facilities. This research sheds light on the coalescent nature of RFDI with overall FDI via flows of MNEs and expatriate staff that can generate direct and indirect spatial impacts at project, city and regional scales.     

外商直接投资、区域创新与城市化发展研究

基于2000—2017年省际面板数据,运用静态面板与门限面板模型,通过建立以政府干预、市场化进程为门限变量的回归模型,实证分析了外商直接投资与区域创新对我国城市化发展的影响。研究结果表明:外商直接投资、区域创新对城市化发展有积极的带动作用,同时,外商直接投资对区域创新的作用由替代效应向互补效应转变;政府干预对外商直接投资存在双重门限效应,对区域创新存在单一门限效应;市场化对外商直接投资存在单一门限效应,但对区域创新存在双重门限效应。基于以上结论,进一步提出促进城市化发展的建议。     

高管过度自信、研发投入跳跃与企业绩效——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于间断平衡理论和高阶梯队理论，以2007-2017年中国沪深两市902家制造企业为样本，实证分析研发投入跳跃对企业绩效的影响以及高管过度自信的调节作用。结果显示：研发投入正向跳跃和负向跳跃均有助于提升企业绩效，高管过度自信正向调节研发投入跳跃与企业绩效间的关系。引入高管过度自信这一重要高管特征作为调节变量，有助于重新认识管理者心理偏差对企业创新行为和绩效的影响，较好地弥补了研发投入跳跃对企业绩效影响机制的研究空缺，丰富了创新间断平衡理论研究。研究表明，企业应重视高管心理特征的影响并结合自身实际情况，合理选择研发投入策略以改善企业绩效。     

Personalized goal-based investing via multi-stage stochastic goal programming

In this paper, we propose a goal-based investment model that is suitable for personalized wealth management. The model only requires a few intuitive inputs such as size of wealth, investment amount, and consumption goals from individual investors. In particular, a priority level can be assigned to each consumption goal and the model provides a holistic solution based on a sequential approach starting with the highest priority. This allows strict prioritization by maximizing the probability of achieving higher priority goals that are not affected by goals with lower priorities. Furthermore, the proposed model is formulated as a linear program that efficiently finds the optimal financial plan. With its simplicity, flexibility, and computational efficiency, the proposed goal-based investment model provides a new framework for automated investment management services.     

高管学术经历能提高企业分红吗？

文章选取2008-2017年沪深A股3449上市公司的23193个样本数据，实证检验了高管学术经历与企业分红水平的关系。研究发现，相比于高管无学术经历的企业，有学术经历高管企业的分红水平显著更高。高管的学术经历通过缓解融资约束，而不是缓解过度投资的路径显著提高企业分红水平。在进一步的研究中，通过引入外部治理与企业产权性质影响因素，发现外部治理较弱、非国有企业的情况下，高管的学术经历对企业分红水平的提高作用更加明显。采用倾向得分匹配法（PSM）、工具变量回归等检验结果依然稳健。研究丰富了高层梯队理论与企业分红相关性的文献，发现了中国情境下影响企业分红的新因素。     

政府背景风险投资对创新的甄选与培育效果——不同区域环境视角的检验

以创业板企业数据为样本，使用Logit模型及工具变量法，研究不同区域环境下政府背景风险投资对企业创新的事前甄选与事后培育作用，并对其机制进行探讨。结果表明：①经济区域对政府背景风险投资行为影响有限，与非核心发达地区相比，金融发达地区的政府背景风险投资对企业技术创新没有表现出差异性甄选行为，但却有更好的事后培育作用，而且这种培育作用会随着地区投资环境优化而增强；②行政区域对政府背景风险投资行为影响显著，与异省投资相比，本省政府背景风险投资对技术创新的事前甄选具有显著优势，但对被投企业后续创新投入产生了一定的负面作用，这种作用会因政府背景风险投资占有董事会席位而加大。     

Third-party certification and post-IPO acquisitions

ABSTRACT

We explore the link between third-party certification (venture capital backing, analyst following and having a top underwriter), and post-IPO acquisition activity through the reduction in valuation uncertainty channel. In a sample of 2,424 U.S. IPOs, we find that third-party certification facilitates post-IPO acquisitions. The certified firms are both more likely and conduct acquisitions sooner after the IPO. Our results support the notion that third-party certification reduces post-IPO valuation uncertainty and thereby facilitates a more efficient acquisition strategy.     

政策不确定性、财政扩张与区域商业银行风险——基于中国地方官员变更和银行业的证据

文章利用2007-2017年我国93家区域商业银行的面板数据，并结合省级宏观经济数据和地方官员变更数据，实证考察了中国地方官员变更引起的经济政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的重要影响。研究结果表明：（1）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性增大了区域商业银行风险；（2）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性，通过提高银行的资产收益率降低了商业银行风险；而不确定性时期的财政扩张，通过降低银行资产收益率增大了商业银行风险；并且财政扩张的负面影响大于政策不确定性的正面影响；（3）各省的市委书记发生职位更替引起的政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的影响更大。文章研究为新时代背景下的金融供给侧结构性改革、政府宏观经济政策的制定以及财政体制与金融体制之间的联系提供参考。